Almost Periodically Correlated Time Series in Business Fluctuations Analysis

We propose a non-standard subsampling procedure to make formal statistical inference about the business cycle, one of the most important unobserved feature characterising fluctuations of economic growth. We show that some characteristics of business cycle can be modelled in a non-parametric way by discrete spectrum of the Almost Periodically Correlated (APC) time series. On the basis of estimated characteristics of this spectrum business cycle is extracted by filtering. As an illustration we characterise the man properties of business cycles in industrial production index for Polish economy

On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship Between Risk and Return

The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal CAPM model we built a general sampling model suitable in analysing such a relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to GARCH-In-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered a constructive approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we apply the hidden truncation mechanism, two equivalent approaches of the inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations, and also the constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of positive sign of the tested relationship.Comment: Presented at 3-rd Symposium on Socio- and Econophysics, FENS2007, Wroclaw 22-24 November 200